"We’re now looking at the seventh year of our recovery," said Bill Hampel, CUNA's chief economist, at the CUNA Board Roundtable. “The job market is improving but still shows significant slack. The economy is now in a sustained recovery.”
The household sector balance sheet mirrors the credit union balance sheet, Hampel said. Consumers deposits/assets are your liabilities, and their liabilities/debt are your assets. Knowing that, there’s still room for further improvement. Consumer debt outstanding is still relatively high, according to the latest figures, Hampel noted.
Consumer confidence has been erratic. This summer it was at 85, but earlier this year it hit 100. “People are nervous, so keep that in mind. The household sector is in good shape but it just doesn’t know it yet.”
“We’ve been forecasting an increase in the 10-year Treasury rate for years and have been over-forecasting it, in fact,” Hampel added. "A big increase will help some of us, but not everyone. And it won't put anyone out of business."
Find the latest economic data and forecasts at cuna.org/economics.