WASHINGTON (1/16/14)--A report indicating strong performance by the mortgage market last week was eclipsed by news of industry-wide difficulties.
The Mortgage Bankers Association market composite index was up by 11.9% for the week ending Jan. 10, according to data published Wednesday by the trade association. The MBA, however, said Tuesday that it reined in its forecast of market activity this year. Its predictions for purchase and refinance originations in 2014 were lowered to $677 billion and $440 billion, from $711 billion and $463 billion.
Compounding the sector's woes was another Wednesday report on the country's most prominent mortgage lenders' fourth quarter. Bank of America, the third-largest originator by market share, saw originations decline on annual basis by 46%, to $11.6 billion from $21.5 billion. Wells Fargo and J.P Morgan, the top two mortgage originators, saw originations drop on a year-over-year basis by 60% and 54%, to $50 billion and $23 billion, respectively (MarketWatch Jan. 15).
The MBA weekly survey however, showed that purchase and refinance activity were both up by 11.5% and 11.2% for the week ending Jan. 10.
Long-term problems for the industry are also evident in the recent MBA data, however. The four-week moving average of the refinance index is down by 16% over the past month and 65% over the past year. A similar measure of the purchase index is down by 4.4% on a monthly basis and 6.5% on a year-over-year basis. A 12-week moving average of the refinance applications component is at its lowest level since 2008, while a similar measure of the purchase index is at a two-year low (Economy.com Jan. 15).
Moody's said that the recent pessimism evinced by the MBA can likely be attributed to the rising cost of mortgage financing. Institutional investors have driven demand in recent months, but rising prices and a shrinking supply of distressed homes is slowing that trend. It's unclear if first-timers and homebuyers trading-up can pick up the slack, the ratings and research firm said.
The fixed-rate for 30-year conventional mortgages and the adjustable five-year mortgage rate are both up on an annual basis--by 105 and 62 basis points.