Expect Weak Loan Growth, Moderate Asset Growth

July 13, 2010

The economy is markedly better now than it was last year. But the fragile economic recovery is far from normal.

Mike Schenk
A typical recession comes on fast and is quick to recover, says CUNA Economist Mike Schenk. Not so this time.

That’s the word from Mike Schenk, vice president of CUNA’s economics and statistics department, and Bill Hampel, CUNA senior vice president and chief economist. They spoke during the Monday breakout session, “The Current Economy and Future Trends: An Industry Update,” during The 1 Credit Union Conference.

Schenk and Hampel shared how the economic outlook will shape credit union operations.

The rise in consumer confidence and spending, along with the recovery in the credit and housing markets, indicate a marked improvement in the economy, Schenk noted.

However, a typical recession comes on fast and is quick to recover with the aid of consumer spending. In contrast, the current economic crisis will recover slowly and with the intervention of significant government spending.

The “new normal,” Hampel noted, means less securitization, more consumer thrift, relatively high unemployment, muted income gains, and higher taxes.

For credit unions, this translates into:

  • Moderate savings and asset growth;
  • Weak loan growth;
  • Higher than normal rates of delinquency and loan loss;
  • Slowly improving net income; and
  • Stable net worth ratios.

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