Home loan originations should help credit unions maintain healthy portfolio growth.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects mortgage originations to decline 6.1% in 2018 and a modest 0.9% in 2019, followed by a 2.4% increase in 2020 as slower home price increases help to stabilize affordability.

Against a backdrop of modestly higher interest rates, MBA’s August 2018 forecast reflects declining refinance activity.

Refinancings accounted for 35% of total originations in 2017. But that’s expected to decline to 28% this year and to roughly 25% in both 2019 and 2020

We expect credit unions to continue to outperform in the mortgage arena. Credit union mortgage originations accounted for only 1.9% of the national total in 2007.

That share has increased steadily over the years, reaching 8.2% at year-end 2017 and 8.7% at midyear 2018.

MIKE SCHENK is CUNA’s deputy chief advocacy officer for policy analysis and chief economist.