Home loan originations should help credit unions maintain healthy portfolio growth.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects mortgage originations to decline 6.1% in 2018 and a modest 0.9% in 2019, followed by a 2.4% increase in 2020 as slower home price increases help to stabilize affordability.
Against a backdrop of modestly higher interest rates, MBA’s August 2018 forecast reflects declining refinance activity.
Refinancings accounted for 35% of total originations in 2017. But that’s expected to decline to 28% this year and to roughly 25% in both 2019 and 2020
We expect credit unions to continue to outperform in the mortgage arena. Credit union mortgage originations accounted for only 1.9% of the national total in 2007.
That share has increased steadily over the years, reaching 8.2% at year-end 2017 and 8.7% at midyear 2018.
MIKE SCHENKis CUNA’s deputy chief advocacy officer for policy analysis and chief economist.
Credit Union Magazine’s Summer 2023 issue highlights the lending outlook for the rest of the year, how credit unions leverage fintech companies to boost digital lending, the power of lending partnerships, common Bank Secrecy Act violations, and the shift board members must make when becoming chair.
