CUNA Senior Economist Jordan van Rijn discusses the latest on the pandemic’s economic impact, as well as the effects next year of an incoming Biden administration in CUNA’s latest Economic Update video. As van Rijn notes at the start, the pandemic continues to be the most important thing in the economy.

“With any economic forecast we have to make a few assumptions, and with all of this uncertainty we’re going to assume basically the next few months will be the worst of the pandemic,” he said. “The combination of upward trends of the virus, the colder winters months when people are inside, COVID fatigue, all of this is going to lead to more business closures, restrictions, school closures and all will have a negative effect on the economy.”

van Rijn said he expects some kind of stimulus bill with relief targeted to families and businesses to be enacted early in the new administration, though on a smaller scale than in 2020.

“We do expect that to help the economy somewhat starting next year,” he said.

The update also includes:

• Thoughts on future shutdowns;
• The unemployment rate at end of 2020 and through 2021;
• The strong housing market led by lower interest rates and rising home values; and
• A breakdown of credit union loan growth by product.

The full video can be found below: