FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 10, 2023
Washington, D.C.

CUNA Senior Economist Ligia Vado provides a macroeconomic and credit union forecast for 2023 in the January 2023 CUNA Economic Update. 

Highlights from the most recent update include:   

• Updated recession forecast: Vado reminded viewers of the “unusual step” taken in October 2022 of predicting a recession in 2023. January shows chances of a recession this year, but the probability has fallen slightly.   
• Credit union lending: Credit unions saw a 19% increase last year in loans outstanding, the strongest growth in almost four decades. Loan growth should considerably moderate to 7% in 2023. 
• Consumer savings: Savings growth is expected to strengthen to 6% in 2023. 

“It’s too early to declare victory in the battle against inflation, but if it continues to moderate as it did in the fourth quarter, the chances of avoiding a recession increase.” – Ligia Vado   

The 2023 outlook is as follows:  

• U.S. job market has slowed without reversing. The goal of a soft landing appears more likely than three months ago. 
• GDP is expected to growth of 0.5% for the full year 2023, down from 1% in 2022.  
• Unemployment is forecast to end the year at 4.25%, consistent with a mild recession.  
• Inflation is expected for 2023 to come in at 3.5%. 
• Fed Funds rate to finish 2023 at around 5%, and the 10-year Treasury rate to remain in a trading range around 3.5% throughout the year. 

“The good news is that the probability of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months has decreased slightly … CUNA economists estimate a 60% probability of the economy experiencing a recession in the next year and this is consistent with the Wall Street Journal Economist Survey.” – Ligia Vado   

      
Vado is a Senior Economist for Credit Union National Association (CUNA). She has over 20 years of economic and financial policy research experience. Vado specializes in risk, insurance and mortgage markets. Vado has been quoted by NerdWallet, PYMNTS.com and Telemundo, among other outlets. 

Please contact Paula Morales (pmorales@cuna.coop) to set up an interview with CUNA Senior Economist Ligia Vado. 

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About CUNA:
Credit Union National Association (CUNA) is the only national association that advocates on behalf of all of America’s credit unions, which are owned by 130 million consumer members. CUNA, along with its network of affiliated state credit union leagues, delivers unwavering advocacy, continuous professional growth and operational confidence to protect the best interests of all credit unions. For more information about CUNA, visit cuna.org. To find your nearest credit union, visit YourMoneyFurther.com.