NEW YORK (7/14/14)--A weak first half of 2014 hasn't clouded the economic picture for many economists, as a National Association of Business Economics survey has found that most believe the chances of the economy falling into another recession in the next two years is "extremely low."
About 60% of those polled said the odds of another recession occurring were less than 10%, despite the economy contracting nearly 3% in the first quarter and despite gross domestic product again expected to fall far short of forecasts in the second quarter (CNBC.com July 11).
"Notwithstanding the difficult start to the year, opinion is widespread that the economy is on solid footing," Timothy Gill, Outlook survey chair, told CNBC.com.
However, economists believe second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures will climb only 2.3%, a drop from the 2.9% expected in June. Real exports are also expected to slow, with forecasts at 2.5% on an average annual basis compared with the 5.5% predicted in March.
Further, more than 50% of those polled said the Federal Reserve won't increase the federal funds rate until early 2015, in line with most expectations. Roughly 37% say the hike will come in the second quarter of next year, while 36% predict the rate hike in the second half of 2015.