Homeownership to drop as renting gains traction: Urban Institute

July 22, 2015

WASHINGTON (7/22/15)--By 2030, new renters will outnumber new homeowners by 4 million, according to recent research from the Urban Institute.

Homeownership will be driven down as more people --particularly millennials--choose renting over owning. In 2030, only 38% of homebuying-age millennials will actually own homes compared with 46% of eligible baby boomers in the 1990s.

However, more than half the growth in headship rate--the pace at which people create new households--seen by 2030 will be attributed to senior households. The Urban Institute noted that the aging population--20 million new seniors by 2030--will want to stay in their homes, creating a need for policies to support that goal.

More declines are forecast for the headship rate, which peaked in 1980. The homeownership rate will have dropped to 61.3% in 2030 from 65% in 2010.

In the decade leading up to 2030, 88% of the 10.4 million net new households will be nonwhite. Roughly 43% of new households formed by 2030 will be Hispanic.