news.cuna.org/articles/108288-mortgage-originations-accelerating-in-2015-mba

Mortgage originations accelerating in 2015: MBA

November 3, 2015

WASHINGTON (11/3/15)--Mortgage originations are beating forecasts for 2015, a new report from the financial advisory firm FBR and Co. has found.

Based on rosier outlooks for the year by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Inside Mortgage Finance, FBR now believes that the mortgage market, and specifically purchase mortgages, will continue to post solid growth into next year.

MBA recently predicted that mortgage originations would climb 7% in 2015 on an annual basis, rising to $1.2 trillion overall. Of that total, purchase originations would account for roughly $731 billion.

Inside Mortgage Finance also recently revised its estimates for this year. The firm now believes that originations jumped 11% in the first half of 2015, with a 16% increase in purchase originations alone.

The trends imply “a strong run-rate for the industry into 2016 on the purchase side, particularly given the gradual recovery in the overall economy,” the report said (Housingwire.com Nov. 2). “We continue to believe that a normalized market of $1.5 trillion is closer than it appeared earlier in the year.”

FBR said that purchase mortgage originations recorded their best quarter in 2Q since the third quarter of 2007, posting $253 billion in originations.

Signaling a positive trend for the future, FBR said:

  • “We believe the most striking data point out of Inside Mortgage Finance’s revised origination totals for the first half (of 2015) is that it takes the four-quarter average to $210 billion from $190 billion for purchase volumes. This represents the best-sustained purchase volume since the trailing four-quarter average in 2Q 2008;” and
     
  • “Total market size of $1.7 trillion could equal 2012/13 peaks. This has been a boon for originators, who have profited off the robust volumes, and a bust for servicers or asset purchasers who have had the value of their mortgage servicing rights decline from high prepayment speeds.”