news.cuna.org/articles/120230-schenk-gives-fox-business-end-of-year-inflation-projections

Schenk gives Fox Business end of year inflation projections

December 1, 2021

Inflation rates will rise by 5% by the end of December, CUNA Chief Economist Mike Schenk said in a recent story by Fox Business. 

"Unlike the Great Inflation era, pandemic recovery will not require a strong policy response to squash inflation expectation. The Federal Reserve will allow inflation to run hot, ensuring those who were on the front lines of the pandemic can recover on the backend." 

According to the Consumer Price Index, inflation is currently rising, reaching 5.4% year-over-year—the highest level in nearly four decades.  

Though inflation numbers are high, Schenk believes they will soften as recovery continues. 

"It’s also important to note that there is a large and misleading base-effect in the current annual data. A year ago the second wave of the COVID crisis was raging and people were hunkered down—they weren’t spending much. While-year-over-year price increases are high, monthly increases have been trending down recently."