CUNA Releases July Economic Update

August 1, 2022

August 1, 2022
Washington, D.C.

In the July 2022 CUNA Economic Update, Senior Economist Dawit Kebede, PhD, comments on the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting and the chances of a recession.  

Highlights from the July update include:

  • Housing investment and car sales: Second quarter car sales and housing investments have declined, but car sales are expected to rebound due to supply chain improvements while new housing construction is expected to soften. 
  • A strong consumer and labor market: The CUNA economist revealed that the economy recovered most of the jobs that it lost during the pandemic. 
  • Shift in spending preference: Consumers switched from purchasing goods to services such as traveling and dining out.  

“It is very difficult to say that the economy is in a recession when you have a labor market this strong. A strong labor market implies strong consumer demand.” – Dawit Kebede, PhD 

Federal fund rate predictions   

  • The federal funds rate will reach 3.15% by this year end and it will be 3.25% by next year. 
  • The unemployment rate will stay the same at 3.6% through the end of the year and will inch up to 4% in 2023. 
  • The economy to grow by 1% this year and probably by 1.5% next year. 

We have a problem: price increases   

“Prices have increased 9.1% year over year and on a monthly basis that increase was 1.3% from May to June. That's really a very big increase … However, energy prices have contributed to half of the increase during that time. If that was not the case, inflation would have been half of that.” 

Dawit Kebede, PhD, is a Senior Economist for the Credit Union National Association (CUNA). He has over eight years of research experience with a focus on trade, employment, and consumer finance. Kebede has been quoted by Fox Business,, and MarketWatch, among other outlets.  

Please contact Kandie Stroud ( to set up an interview with CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede. 


About CUNA:           
Credit Union National Association (CUNA) is the only national association that advocates on behalf of all of America’s credit unions, which are owned by 130 million consumer members. CUNA, along with its network of affiliated state credit union leagues, delivers unwavering advocacy, continuous professional growth and operational confidence to protect the best interests of all credit unions. For more information about CUNA, visit To find your nearest credit union, visit

Kandie Stroud
CUNA Communications