Economic Update covers growth predictions, credit union margins
CUNA Senior Economist Ligia Vado discusses an overview of third quarter findings and end of year projections in the October 2022 CUNA Economic Update,
“Members’ healthy financial conditions is one of the most important reasons why, if indeed there is a recession next year, its impact on credit unions will be much less severe,” Vado said
Highlights from the most recent update include:
- Economic growth predictions: Vado projected that the economy will grow 0.3% in 2022 and no growth in 2023.
- Yield curve inversion: The inversion of the yield curve since July signals a recession within 6 to 12 months. CUNA forecasts a ‘relatively mild’ recession in the first half of 2023.
- ‘Pressure’ on credit union margins: Increased interest rate risk, higher operating expense, reduced consumer spending and lower levels of income from mortgage refinancing will affect bottom-line growth.
Credit union forecasts:
- Loans outstanding are predicted for an 18% increase by the end of the year, the strongest in over 35 years.
- Savings growth will be 3.5% in 2022, among the slowest in the last 40 years.
- Record low savings growth and historic loan growth resulted in lower credit unions liquidity levels and challenges.