PODCAST: Forecasting the 2024 economy

Fresh off its first-ever economic forecast, America’s Credit Unions’ economics team hopped on the podcast to set the stage for 2024.

What do they expect this year? Will the U.S. face a recession? What’s happening in lending? How are credit unions’ balance sheets?

Dawit Kebede, Curt Long, Ligia Vado, and Mike Schenk answer those questions and more, with their baseline forecast calling for modest economic growth of 1.5% in 2024.

“That recognizes the idea that the Fed will deliver on its promise of a soft landing, but we do see significant operational and financial risks for credit unions,” Schenk says. “So, it’s nice that we won’t be suffering through a recession, but the unemployment rate is going to drift up. That means consumers on the margin will be more likely to experience difficulty.”

Dive into the details by listening to the full episode on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube.

In this episode:

0:12: Episode intro

0:56: Mike's "in a nutshell" outlook

2:59: Interest rates

6:18: Labor market

10:14: Consumer sector

11:22: Housing market

15:00: Auto lending

17:56: Loan growth and asset quality

22:12: Liquidity

24:16: Wage pressures

25:31: Credit union earnings

27:16: Final thoughts