FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 9, 2023
CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede provides a macroeconomic and credit union forecast for 2023 in the May 2023 CUNA Economic Update.
Highlights from the most recent update include:
“After the failure of some banks, it’s not only demand for loans that is going to be impacted, but supply of credit is also going to be tight … Standards are tightening and demand is also falling for commercial, industrial and household loans.” – Dawit Kebede
Credit union forecast:
Savings growth is expected to grow 4% this year and 5% next year.
Loan growth will slow down relative to last year, but will remain close to the long-run growth trend.
Liquidity will tighten further in 2023 with the loan-to-savings ratio rising by another 2.8 percentage points to 84.3% by year-end.
“We are forecasting inflation would continue to slow down and probably reach 3.5% by the end of the year. Still, above the Fed’s target of 2%, but maybe next year it will come down to where the Federal Reserve wants it to be. In the process, the unemployment rate would trend up a little bit to 4% and that's also consistent with prices coming down … That’s our forecast for year-end. No other further increases coming this year and probably when inflation starts to go down next year rates will start to go down.” – Dawit Kebede
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