What’s happening in credit union lending? What do CUNA’s economists forecast for the rest of 2023? How could economic uncertainty and a potential recession change the lending outlook?
He joins CUNA Associate Editor Brock Fritz to discuss the economic and lending trends that influenced the CUNA economists’ May quarterly forecast, which estimates a more normal lending landscape after a massive increase in 2022. This late May conversation details the economic factors at play while exploring the state of mortgages, auto loans, the job market, and more.
“We've seen a significant deceleration in loan growth overall,” Schenk says. “There's a good deal of uncertainty in the marketplace—2023 looks a lot different than 2022. I wouldn't necessarily characterize the forecast as a reversion to the mean, but things will look more normal over this forecast horizon than they have in the last couple years.”
In this episode:
1:20: Lending summary for the first half of 2023
4:24: Economic uncertainty and the odds of a recession
6:32: Consumer confidence and the banking sector
11:40: Mortgages and the housing market
19:57: Auto lending
22:58: Inflation headed in the right direction
23:49: What should credit unions do?
29:25: Asset quality